ALMATY, Jan 21 / �IRBIS�/
From January 17 to 21 a new trend was formed on the currency market of Kazakhstan: after a week and a half growth in the exchange rate of the dollar tenge began to gain against the major reserve currency of the world.
Tendencies, typical to the beginning of the year, were on the market on January 17. They were characterized by a high demand for the U.S. dollars from the banks and their clients, and from the population � for cash dollars. The latter, in dealers� opinion, was felt mainly in peripheral regions of the country and stimulated the demand at KASE.
But even on January 17 the market was not so active as it was in previous one and a half weeks. 45 point increase in the official exchange rate of the dollar in Friday evening had a certain impact on the overheat of the market on Monday. It had affected the trades as 24 point growth in USD rate at the Exchange. As interbank quotations showed in the afternoon of that day, the market did not accept this rate of increase in USD and it seemed to be exhausted of an uninterrupted currency race late that day.
In the next days of the week activity of the trades decreased significantly, and the demand of the banks of the second tier gradually went down to zero. Dealers observed a decrease in the activity of the interbank market.
One of the reasons for the demand to fall � is the decline in the solvency (liquidity) of the banks and the population. The former restored their currency positions, but there were no inflows of tenge into the market. The National Bank and the Ministry of finance were actively borrowing money at the auctions for offering SS. Moreover, correspondent accounts of the banks were cleaned up when they were purchasing foreign currency. The latter � the population � have already spent the money, they received when the wages and the pensions were paid off in December, and there were ample of time till the next payments. The market was saturated with the dollars with the current amount of cash and non-cash tenge in circulation.
But the major reason behind the decrease in the demand of the banks was tax payments to the budget made by their clients. Such incident does not cause much liquidity problems to the most of the major financial institutions, since appropriate measures are taken. However, even their dealers were temporarily confined while their clients were making year-end payments. There was an growing shortage of tenge in the market on Tuesday, January 18. The banks are not capable of buying dollars, and some of them, on the contrary, are selling them. For the first time this year, the exchange rate of the dollar begins to fall.
The same day the Ministry of finance offers the market the third issue of nine months MEKAVM just on time, and for them investors pay an equivalent of 14.4 mln U.S. dollars. More precisely, the payments for the securities were made on Wednesday, which worsens the short term liquidity of the BST. Wednesday trades went with minimum activity of the traders and minimum transaction volumes. Tenge keeps growing.
Placement of short term notes of the National Bank on Wednesday and Thursday helps the head bank of the country to prevent possible increase in the demand for the dollars on these days. These placements actually neutralized the repayment of KZT2,631.6 mln for previously issued notes. Therefore, on Thursday demand did not exist at KASE either, exchange rate of the dollars fell, volume of deals got to its lowest level, and interbank quotations of the American currency did not exceed the Exchange�s price of USD in the afternoon.
Activity of the Exchange trades grew on Friday only. But it happened not because of reemerging demand. BST were selling dollars, including � exporters� earnings, because it was more profitable to sell them on the Exchange considering the ratio of the dollar prices at KASE and on interbank market.
Considering the end-of-week results it can be said the market has found its new equilibrium point, from which the exchange rate of USD will go down. However, the price of the shortest money, which grew 2-2.5 times under the influence of tenge shortage within a week, returned to previous level on Friday. In the last evening of the week there were no shortages of tenge. But the results of the day show that the banks will hardly try to increase their currency positions. The market is already saturated with the dollars.
Taking into account all these, it can be assumed significant changes in the exchange rate of the dollar will not happen in the next coming week. The exchange rate may well remain on the attained level. But the dealers note the exporters� earnings appeared in the market. They were absent in the first half of January. And large volumes of dollar supply can cause some firming of the tenge in current situation.
Weeks volume of trades in Non-state Securities on KASE - $255.332
During 4th (January 17 - 23) activity in the Non-state Securities (NSS) on the Kazakhstan Stock Exchange declined remarkable. Within 5 trade days the only transaction to the total sum of $255.332 was fixed, which is 4.7 time or by $935,500 less than in the previous week, when 4 transactions on the sum of 2,190,800 dollars were made.
Volume of transactions on KASE for the period has made 2,600 securities.
The transaction was conducted in the bonds of �KAZKOMMERTSBANK� (KKGBb, official list of securities, category �A�) and in the KASE trade system main mode.
Stock market capitalization for private securities of Kazakhstan
as of January 21 � $2,238.4 mln
On January 21 stock market capitalization for corporate securities of Kazakhstan (A+B+N excluding SBS) equaled 2,238.4 mln US dollars.
Capitalization decreased by $2.31 th. during the week. Change in the exchange rate of the dollar compensated emergence of a new company in trade lists � OJSC �Astana-finance�. The only deal of the week could not change the capitalization, since it was made in bonds of OJSC �KAZKOMMERTSBANK�.
Now 88 instruments of 66 companies and 4 state block of shares can be traded on the floor of KASE.
Weekly balance of the Ministry of Finance in SS market �
positive 2,008.4 mln tenge
The Ministry of Finance ended the fourth week (January 17-23) on the primary market for SS with the following results. The emitter raised 2,008.4 mln tenge at one auction.
This figure represents weekly balance of the Ministry of Finance�s net-borrowing, since no SS were repaid in this week.
Weekly volume of deals in USD at KASE � $10,265 mln
US dollar: within the fourth week (January 17 - 23) of 2000 on Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (KASE) 173 transactions totaling $10.265 million were made at average session volume of $2.053 million.
This week tenge devaluation rate against the dollar, calculated at weighted average rate of the Exchange, is estimated by a trend of 3.4% APR.
In the previous week 477 deals totaling $42.125 million at average session volume of $8.425 million were made. During that period weighted average exchange rate of the dollar grew at an average of 23.9% APR.
Devaluation of tenge towards U.S. dollar, calculated at weighted average rate of the Exchange as of January 21, in the mid term (last 30 days) equals to average of 11.3% APR.
Deutsche mark: 4 transactions totaling DEM30 th. were made. The deutsche mark rate decreased by 0.82%, which corresponds to 42.6% APR of weekly average tenge revaluation rate.
Euro: no deals were made.
Total volume of transactions in foreign currency in 4th week is estimated at 1,434.6 mln tenge or equivalent of USD10.280.6 thousand.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan for January 22-25:
1USD/KZT = 139.50, 1DEM/KZT = 74.51, 1RUR/KZT = 4.81,
1EUR/KZT = 145.73
For January 22-25, 2000 the National Bank of Kazakhstan has established the following exchange rates for accounting, customs and tax purposes: for 1 USD 139.50 (0) tenge; for 1 DEM 74.51 (+1.01) tenge; for 1 RUR 4.81 (0) tenge; for 1 EURO 145.73 (+1.98) tenge.
Total of 33 currencies are in the list.
Today at KASE dealers restricted themselves to symbolic
amount of deals in USD
The morning trades in US dollar, Deutsche mark and Euro were held at Kazakhstan stock exchange (KASE) with TOD payment terms. 13 banks participated in the trades.
Today the trades in US dollars opened at 139.43 tenge per unit. Total of 3 deals were made. Weighted average dollar exchange rate equaled to 139.45 (0) tenge per unit. Volume of the session � $15 th. (-$2,150 mln). Exchange rate fluctuation during the trade �0.02%. The trades were closed at 139.45/46 tenge per dollar.
Today the market was practically illiquid. It seems the banks took a �wait-and-see� position, and five participants restricted themselves to minimum allowed transaction volumes. Dollar was traded between 139.43-139.46 tenge per unit interval.
One hour after closing of the morning session on interbank market of Kazakhstan dollar was quoted at 139.39/42 tenge per unit, two hours later � 139.40/44. In the day session of KASE with TOD payment terms at 1:00PM the dollar was at 139.40/45.
Deutsche mark, morning session, TOD: no deals. Closing quotations � 71.60/72.30 tenge for mark.
Euro, morning session, TOD: no deals. Closing demand � 139.76 tenge for euro, no offer.
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